With the constant stream of data about COVID-19, it can be hard to make sense of all the numbers. We look at the base rate fallacy, and how some people are making this mistake when assessing risk.

Innovations like sewing machines or word processors didn’t lead to mass unemployment. Instead, they changed jobs and spawned ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Bryce Hoffman writes about leadership, strategy, and decision making. The gambler’s fallacy is ...

Recently I've been deep-diving into a model of brain, mind, and behavior—active inference and the free energy principle—developed by a leading neuroscientist and computational psychiatrist Karl ...

Economics professors typically cover the “economic way of thinking” in the first chapter of a principles of economics course. After covering 8-10 of the most important guideposts and principles of ...

What happens when an entrepreneur realizes their project isn't delivering? It can create a crossroad between perseverance and prudence—the point where passion meets pragmatism. The resulting decision ...

THINK about the following situations. In the first scenario, you purchased a couple=spa package for P6,000 as a romantic gift for you and your spouse’s wedding anniversary next week. You called the ...