Abstract: The Poisson-binomial probability density function (pdf) describes the numbers of successes in N independent trials, when the individual probabilities of success vary across trials. Its use ...
Abstract: In this paper, we extend the notion of Cauchy-Schwarz divergence to point processes and establish that the Cauchy-Schwarz divergence between the probability densities of two Poisson point ...
What are each national team’s chances of winning the World Cup? We’ve built a statistical model to try to answer that question rigorously. The model works in two steps: first we measure each team’s ...
Final pre-match blend: market odds (de-vigged) 40% / ML ensemble 40% / Poisson 15% / form 5%. Per-target models (research-driven, all backtested on held-out 2025–26): Target Baseline New model Method ...
What began with a focus on weather forecasting has evolved toward addressing errors in scientific modeling. In the collaborative environment of the Penn State Institute for Computational and Data ...
The tools of probability theory, and of the related field of statistical inference, are the keys for being able to analyze and make sense of data. These tools underlie important advances in many ...
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Log-linear Poisson models provide a principled framework for modeling such count data through covariate-dependent intensity functions. This study develops a Bayesian formulation of the Poisson ...
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